Aramco CEO: Global oil inventories below 6 billion barrels

Summary

• Amin Nasser said commercial oil stocks have fallen to critically low levels after the regional war.
• He put wartime supply losses at roughly 3 billion barrels, with over 1 billion drawn from inventories.
• Rebuilding reserves could take two years, leaving markets exposed to any new disruption.

The latest

Global commercial oil inventories have dropped below 6 billion barrels, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said, warning that most of that volume is not practically available for immediate use. Speaking at the 2026 Energy Intelligence Forum in London, he said the safety margin securing continuity of supply has become extremely limited, with few options left for markets unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

Details

• The war's toll: Nasser said the seven-month war between the United States, Israel and Iran cost the region roughly 3 billion barrels of oil supplies. He put that at nearly half the crude and refined products that would normally have moved through the Strait of Hormuz over the same period.
• Where the barrels came from: More than 1 billion barrels were drawn from oil reserves to cushion the shortfall, Nasser said, while governments released more than 300 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, with agreements in place to release further quantities. He did not name the governments involved.
• The last tool: The bulk of compensatory supply came from company stockpiles rather than state reserves, according to Nasser, who described corporate inventories as the last major tool available to support the market. That framing points to how little slack is left in the commercial system.
• On strategic releases: Emergency releases by major economies may deliver short-term relief, Nasser said, but will not resolve the underlying supply-demand imbalance. He urged governments to prioritize energy security and strengthen supply-chain resilience.
• The two-year estimate: Replenishing stockpiles while simultaneously meeting global demand could take as long as two years even after the conflict ends, Nasser estimated. He tied any recovery timeline to the Strait of Hormuz fully reopening, without specifying a date for that.
• Infrastructure attacks: Ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked in recent weeks, Nasser said, along with pipelines, refineries and ports belonging to Aramco. He did not detail the damage or identify who carried out the attacks.
• Satellites as weapons: Nasser said satellite imagery and open databases of ship movements are increasingly being used to target energy infrastructure and tankers, arguing that "transparency tools should not be turned into tools of aggression."
• Price signal: The market continues to suffer from a supply shortage and elevated transportation costs, Nasser said, noting that spot prices for North Sea crude have climbed to their highest levels since April. He gave no price figure.
• Aramco's response: The company is exploring additional export routes for Saudi crude and expanding storage facilities outside the Kingdom, Nasser said, to bolster supply reliability and shield customers from future disruptions. He did not identify the routes or the storage locations.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for a large share of seaborne crude and refined product flows. Nasser's figures treat the volumes that would have transited it during the seven-month conflict as the benchmark for measuring the region's supply losses.

Between the lines

The numbers Nasser laid out describe a market running on borrowed barrels. With more than 1 billion drawn from inventories, over 300 million released from strategic reserves, and commercial stocks now under 6 billion — most of it, by his account, not readily usable — the buffer that absorbed the war has largely been spent. That is why he frames any new disruption, rather than the war itself, as the central risk.

What's next

Watch whether the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, whether governments execute the additional strategic reserve releases Nasser said were already agreed, and whether North Sea spot prices extend their rise beyond April highs.

Source: Saudi Gazette via ZAWYA